The increase would vary by age group (Table 1 and Fig. 1e, f). People aged 65 years or older would have larger increases in both number and percent prevalence than younger adults. The number (percent) of people with diagnosed diabetes in the 65 years or older group would increase from 9.18 million (19.8%) in 2014 to 21.0 million (28.1%) in 2030, and 35.2 million (35.0%) in 2060. As a share of the total diabetes population, those aged 65 years or older accounted for 41.1% in 2014. This share would increase to 53.0% in 2030 and to 58.0% in 2060.
Our study has limitations. First, we were not able to include youth aged 0 to 17 years in our projection due to the lack of information about this group in the NHIS. However, this would not substantially impact the total diabetes population, as diabetes is much less prevalent in the younger age group (0.25%) [23]. A previous projection of diabetes in youth estimated a 0.2 million (1.8%) prevalence of type 1 diabetes and a 0.03 million (0.27%) prevalence of type 2 diabetes in youth in 2050 [6]. Second, we did not consider undiagnosed diabetes in our projection. Adding an undiagnosed diabetes state to the model would necessitate the estimation of additional parameters. Some of these parameters, such as mortality for the undiagnosed diabetes population, the transition from undiagnosed diabetes to diagnosed diabetes, and the transition from normal glucose status to undiagnosed diabetes, would be difficult to estimate with adequate precision from available data. Further, adding an additional latent state to the model would increase the complexity of the solution and result in larger uncertainty [24]. Introducing such uncertainty would decrease the reliability of the model and could result in larger errors in the future projection. A study using data from the National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) that included laboratory measures estimated 8.1 million US adults (27.8% of the diabetes population) had undiagnosed diabetes in 2014 [23]. The NHANES study provided an estimate of diagnosed diabetes prevalence that was similar to our 2014 NHIS estimate for year 2014. The NHANES estimate of the undiagnosed prevalence proportion could be applied to our future projection to obtain projections of future total (diagnosed and undiagnosed) diabetes, which would be 55.0 million in 2030 and 84.0 million in 2060. Thirdly, we did not consider diabetes remission that may occur after bariatric surgery. Nevertheless, the influence would be negligible, since the number of remission cases accounts for a very small proportion of the diagnosed population and those who experience remission are at high risk of relapse [10]. Finally, similar to all projections, our projection could be biased if the key assumptions (especially regarding diabetes incidence) differ from reality. To mitigate this uncertainty, we performed a sensitivity analysis to help quantify the potential error of our projection if incidence were to change substantially.
Younger Next Year Epub To Pdf
Based on available data from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry, the median age of onset of colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients with cystic fibrosis is roughly 20-30 years younger than in the general population.
YearCompass is a free booklet that helps you reflect on the year and plan the next one. With a set of carefully selected questions and exercises, YearCompass helps you uncover your own patterns and design the ideal year for yourself. 2ff7e9595c
Comments